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Mantic is AI that predicts world events. This summer it beat all 676 human forecasters in the Metaculus Cup.
Proven track record.
Battle tested against the best human forecasters and prediction markets.
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Better calibrated than the market.
Calibration error in a backtest against Polymarket, on markets with $1k+ traded. Lower is better.
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Forecasts you can act on.
Tell Mantic what matters to you. It researches each question like a top forecaster and gives you a probability, with reasoning and sources.
Built for teams working under uncertainty.
Surface the issues that could affect you, before they're news.
Get a probability for each, with clear reasoning.
Forecasts update as the world changes.
Ahead of the crowd.
Mantic's forecasts next to the Metaculus crowd's at the same moment.
Will Pope Leo XIV visit a country other than Spain or Italy before September 2026?Forecast in June 2026 Mantic 94% Crowd 10% Result: Yes
Leo XIV's calendar looked full, with Spain in June and France later in the year, and papal trips are usually announced weeks ahead. On 28 May the Vatican announced a one-day visit to San Marino. The crowd stayed around 10% for a week, until a commenter asked on 4 June whether San Marino counted.
“We focused on San Marino because it is a sovereign United Nations member state distinct from both Spain and Italy, which were excluded by the specific terms of the question.”Mantic, June 2026
What happened: he visited San Marino on 22 August, marking 100 years of diplomatic relations with the Holy See.
Will a new High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina be in place before 2 September 2026?Forecast in July 2026 Mantic 41% Crowd 92% Result: No
Christian Schmidt resigned as the international envoy in May 2026. On 30 June the Peace Implementation Council named his deputy as acting envoy and gave itself until 14 July to appoint a permanent one, and the crowd went above 90%. Mantic doubted the US and the Europeans would agree on a candidate in time.
“There is a clear geopolitical split: one group of countries (led by the US and Italy) favors a candidate with a more limited mandate, while another … supports a candidate with full executive powers.”Mantic, July 2026
What happened: the council failed to agree on 14 July and set no new date. Only the acting envoy was in place on 2 September.
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win Colombia's 2026 presidential election?Forecast in May 2026 Mantic 46% Crowd 31% Result: Yes
Iván Cepeda, the candidate of the governing left, led first-round polls, and a week before the vote the crowd had him as the 54% favourite. Mantic expected the anti-government vote to unite behind de la Espriella in a runoff, and from 22 May it made him the favourite.
“While some polls show Cepeda winning head-to-head matchups, others suggest he faces a ‘ceiling’ due to high rejection rates and a public backlash against the current administration's security policies.”Mantic, May 2026
What happened: de la Espriella topped the first round on 31 May and won the 21 June runoff by about one point.
Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before May 2026?Forecast in March 2026 Mantic 26% Crowd 74% Result: No
A Metaculus Cup question, scored head-to-head against the platform's professional forecasters. The community extrapolated the air campaign into a land war and peaked at 74%. Mantic peaked at 30%, treating a sustained ground presence as an unlikely outcome due to domestic political opposition.
“The most likely ‘Yes’ scenarios are not a march on Tehran but limited tactical seizures: occupying Kharg Island or coastal areas to reopen shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, or extended special operations to secure nuclear materials.”Mantic, March 2026
What happened: the question resolved No.
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Predicting future events that require bespoke research and contextual understanding
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Founded in London in 2024.
Started by Toby Shevlane and Ben Day. To date, we've raised $29m from Radical Ventures, Balderton, Thinking Machines, DRW, FT Ventures, M12 and Episode 1.
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